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2016-12-10Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckw216
Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults—a multi-center cohort approach
dc.contributor.authorBachlechner, Ursula
dc.contributor.authorBoeing, Heiner
dc.contributor.authorHaftenberger, Marjolein
dc.contributor.authorSchienkiewitz, Anja
dc.contributor.authorScheidt-Nave, Christa
dc.contributor.authorVogt, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorThorand, Barbara
dc.contributor.authorSchipf, Sabine
dc.contributor.authorIttermann, Till
dc.contributor.authorVölzke, Henry
dc.contributor.authorNöthlings, Ute
dc.contributor.authorNeamat-Allah, Jasmine
dc.contributor.authorGreiser, Karin-Halina
dc.contributor.authorKaaks, Rudolf
dc.contributor.authorSteffen, Annika
dc.contributor.editorPeters, Annette
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-07T20:21:12Z
dc.date.available2018-05-07T20:21:12Z
dc.date.created2017-08-08
dc.date.issued2016-12-10none
dc.identifier.otherhttp://edoc.rki.de/oa/articles/rewjwwm6PakXs/PDF/24r9DofvGc8js.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/2747
dc.description.abstractBackground: A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. Methods: We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score’s discriminatory accuracy. Results: The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67–0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials.eng
dc.language.isoger
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut, Epidemiologie und Gesundheitsberichterstattung
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin
dc.titlePredicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults—a multi-center cohort approach
dc.typeperiodicalPart
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-10054236
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/eurpub/ckw216
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.25646/2672
local.edoc.container-titleEuropean Journal of Public Health
local.edoc.fp-subtypeArtikel
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/eurpub/ckw216
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameOxford University Press
local.edoc.container-volume27
local.edoc.container-issue4
local.edoc.container-year2017

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