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2018-12-26Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.25646/5943
Hosts mobility and spatial spread of Rickettsia rickettsii
dc.contributor.authorPolo, Gina
dc.contributor.authorMera Acosta, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorLabruna, Marcelo B.
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorBrockmann, Dirk
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-14T08:08:14Z
dc.date.available2019-03-14T08:08:14Z
dc.date.issued2018-12-26none
dc.identifier.other10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006636
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/5978
dc.description.abstractThere are a huge number of pathogens with multi-component transmission cycles, involving amplifier hosts, vectors or complex pathogen life cycles. These complex systems present challenges in terms of modeling and policy development. A lethal tick-borne infectious disease, the Brazilian Spotted Fever (BSF), is a relevant example of that. The current increase of human cases of BSF has been associated with the presence and expansion of the capybara Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, amplifier host for the agent Rickettsia rickettsii and primary host for the tick vector Amblyomma sculptum. We introduce a stochastic dynamical model that captures the spatial distribution of capybaras and ticks to gain a better understanding of the spatial spread of the R. rickettsii and potentially predict future epidemic outcomes. We implemented a reaction-diffusion process in which individuals were divided into classes denoting their state with respect to the disease. The model considered bidirectional movements between base and destination locations limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. We performed systematic stochastic simulations and numerical analysis of the model and investigate the impact of potential interventions to mitigate the spatial spread of the disease. The mobility of capybaras and their attached ticks was significantly influenced by the birth rate of capybaras and therefore, disease propagation velocity was higher in places with higher carrying capacity. Some geographical barriers, generated for example by riparian reforesting, can impede the spatial spread of BSF. The results of this work will allow the formulation of public actions focused on the prevention of BSF human cases.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0 DE) Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschlandger
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleHosts mobility and spatial spread of Rickettsia rickettsiinone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:kobv:0257-176904/5978-5
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.25646/5943
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titlePLoS Computational Biologynone
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006636none
local.edoc.container-publisher-namePublic Library of Sciencenone
local.edoc.container-volume14none
local.edoc.container-issue12none
local.edoc.container-reportyear2018none
local.edoc.container-year2018none
local.edoc.container-firstpage1none
local.edoc.container-lastpage18none
local.edoc.rki-departmentProjektgruppen/Nachwuchsgruppennone
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone

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