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2022-03-17Zeitschriftenartikel
Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020
dc.contributor.authorFriedsam, Amelie M.
dc.contributor.authorBrady, Oliver J.
dc.contributor.authorPilic, Antonia
dc.contributor.authorDobler, Gerhard
dc.contributor.authorHellenbrand, Wiebke
dc.contributor.authorNygren, Teresa M.
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-23T07:01:27Z
dc.date.available2022-08-23T07:01:27Z
dc.date.issued2022-03-17none
dc.identifier.other10.3390/ microorganisms10030643
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/10081
dc.description.abstractTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018–2020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0–93%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0 DE) Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschlandger
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/
dc.subjecttick-borne encephalitiseng
dc.subjectspatial epidemiologyeng
dc.subjectrisk mappingeng
dc.subjectecological niche modellingeng
dc.subjectGermanyeng
dc.subjectBavariaeng
dc.subjectBaden-Wuerttembergeng
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleGeo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018–2020none
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-176904/10081-7
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleMicroorganismsnone
local.edoc.container-issn2076-2607none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/10/3/643/htmnone
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameMPDInone
local.edoc.container-volume10none
local.edoc.container-issue3none
local.edoc.container-year2022none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone

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