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2009-08-13Zeitschriftenartikel DOI: 10.25646/968
What will the next influenza season bring about: seasonal influenza or the new A(H1N1)V? An analysis of German influenza surveillance data
dc.contributor.authorUphoff, Helmut
dc.contributor.authorGeis, Steffen
dc.contributor.authorGrüber, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorHauri, Anja M.
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-07T15:07:15Z
dc.date.available2018-05-07T15:07:15Z
dc.date.created2012-01-11
dc.date.issued2009-08-13none
dc.identifier.otherhttp://edoc.rki.de/oa/articles/reJ5wSaSlI/PDF/24ovnJ5zmRd6Q.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/1043
dc.description.abstractFor the next influenza season (winter 2009-10) the relative contributions to virus circulation and influenza-associated morbidity of the seasonal influenza viruses A(H3N2), A(H1N1) and B, and the new influenza A(H1N1)v are still unknown. We estimated the chances of seasonal influenza to circulate during the upcoming season using data of the German influenza sentinel scheme from 1992 to 2009. We calculated type and subtype-specific indices for past exposure and the corresponding morbidity indices for each season. For the upcoming season 2009-10 our model suggests that it is unlikely that influenza A(H3N2) will circulate with more than a low intensity, seasonal A(H1N1) with more than a low to moderate intensity, and influenza B with more than a low to median intensity. The probability of a competitive circulation of seasonal influenza A with the new A(H1N1)v is low, increasing the chance for the latter to dominate the next influenza season in Germany.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut, Infektionsepidemiologie
dc.subjectHumanseng
dc.subjectDisease Outbreakseng
dc.subjectGermany/epidemiologyeng
dc.subjectVirulenceeng
dc.subjectPopulation Surveillanceeng
dc.subjectSeasonseng
dc.subjectGenetic Variationeng
dc.subjectForecastingeng
dc.subjectInfluenza Human/epidemiologyeng
dc.subjectInfluenza A Virus H1N1 Subtype/geneticseng
dc.subjectInfluenza A Virus H1N1 Subtype/pathogenicityeng
dc.subjectDNA Bacterial/geneticseng
dc.subjectDNA Bacterial/isolation & purificationeng
dc.subjectInfluenza A Virus H1N1 Subtype/classification*eng
dc.subjectMorbidity/trendseng
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin
dc.titleWhat will the next influenza season bring about: seasonal influenza or the new A(H1N1)V? An analysis of German influenza surveillance data
dc.typeperiodicalPart
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-10017365
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.25646/968
local.edoc.container-titleEuroSurveillance
local.edoc.fp-subtypeArtikel
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttp://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19303
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameECDC
local.edoc.container-volume14
local.edoc.container-issue32
local.edoc.container-year2009

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