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2021-08-27Zeitschriftenartikel
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
dc.contributor.authorBracher, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorWolffram, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorDeuschel, Jannik
dc.contributor.authorGörgen, Konstatin
dc.contributor.authorKetterer, Jakob
dc.contributor.authorUllrich, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, Sam
dc.contributor.authorBarbarossa, Maria Vittoria
dc.contributor.authorBertsimas, Dimitris
dc.contributor.authorBhatia, Sangeeta
dc.contributor.authorBodych, Marcin
dc.contributor.authorBosse, Nikos I.
dc.contributor.authorBurgard, Jan Pablo
dc.contributor.authorCastro, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorFairchild, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.authorFuhrmann, Jan
dc.contributor.authorFunk, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorGogolewski, Krzysztof
dc.contributor.authorGu, Quanquan
dc.contributor.authorHeyder, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorHotz, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorKheifetz, Yuri
dc.contributor.authorKirsten, Holger
dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Tyll
dc.contributor.authorKrymova, Ekaterina
dc.contributor.authorLi, Michael Lingzhi
dc.contributor.authorMeinke, Jan H.
dc.contributor.authorMichaud, Isaac J.
dc.contributor.authorNiedzielewski, Karol
dc.contributor.authorOżański, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorRakowski, Franciszek
dc.contributor.authorScholz, Markus
dc.contributor.authorSoni, Saksham
dc.contributor.authorSrivastava, Ajitesh
dc.contributor.authorZieliński, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorZou, Difan
dc.contributor.authorGneiting, Tilmann
dc.contributor.authorSchienle, Melanie
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-26T16:01:42Z
dc.date.available2024-07-26T16:01:42Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-27none
dc.identifier.other10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/11871
dc.description.abstractDisease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0 DE) Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschlandger
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleA pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wavenone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-176904/11871-2
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleNature Communicationsnone
local.edoc.container-issn2041-1723none
local.edoc.pages16none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://www.nature.com/ncomms/none
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameSpringer Naturenone
local.edoc.container-volume12none
local.edoc.container-reportyear2021none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone

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