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2021-10-14Zeitschriftenartikel
Individual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany—an analysis based on the COVIMOD study
dc.contributor.authorTomori, Damilola Victoria
dc.contributor.authorRübsamen, Nicole
dc.contributor.authorBerger, Tom
dc.contributor.authorScholz, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorWalde, Jasmin
dc.contributor.authorWittenberg, Ian
dc.contributor.authorLange, Berit
dc.contributor.authorKuhlmann, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorHorn, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorMikolajczyk, Rafael
dc.contributor.authorJaeger, Veronika K.
dc.contributor.authorKarch, André
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-26T15:05:33Z
dc.date.available2024-08-26T15:05:33Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-14none
dc.identifier.other10.1186/s12916-021-02139-6
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/11975
dc.description.abstractBackground The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany. Methods We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute. Results We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility. Conclusions Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0 DE) Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschlandger
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/
dc.subjectcontact patternseng
dc.subjectCOVID-19eng
dc.subjectcontact surveyseng
dc.subjectpandemiceng
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleIndividual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany—an analysis based on the COVIMOD studynone
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-176904/11975-6
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titleBMC Medicinenone
local.edoc.container-issn1741-7015none
local.edoc.pages13none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/none
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameSpringer Naturenone
local.edoc.container-volume19none
local.edoc.container-reportyear2021none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone

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