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2022-10-31Zeitschriftenartikel
National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021
dc.contributor.authorBracher, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorWolffram, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorDeuschel, Jannik
dc.contributor.authorGörgen, Konstantin
dc.contributor.authorKetterer, Jakob L.
dc.contributor.authorUllrich, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, Sam
dc.contributor.authorBarbarossa, Maria V.
dc.contributor.authorBertsimas, Dimitris
dc.contributor.authorBhatia, Sangeeta
dc.contributor.authorBodych, Marcin
dc.contributor.authorBosse, Nikos I.
dc.contributor.authorBurgard, Jan Pablo
dc.contributor.authorCastro, Lauren
dc.contributor.authorFairchild, Geoffrey
dc.contributor.authorFiedler, Jochen
dc.contributor.authorFuhrmann, Jan
dc.contributor.authorFunk, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorGambin, Anna
dc.contributor.authorGogolewski, Krzysztof
dc.contributor.authorHeyder, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorHotz, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorKheifetz, Yuri
dc.contributor.authorKirsten, Holger
dc.contributor.authorKrueger, Tyll
dc.contributor.authorKrymova, Ekaterina
dc.contributor.authorLeithäuser, Neele
dc.contributor.authorLi, Michael L.
dc.contributor.authorMeinke, Jan H.
dc.contributor.authorMiasojedow, Błażej
dc.contributor.authorMichaud, Isaac J.
dc.contributor.authorMohring, Jan
dc.contributor.authorNouvellet, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorNowosielski, Jedrzej M.
dc.contributor.authorOzanski, Tomasz
dc.contributor.authorRadwan, Maciej
dc.contributor.authorRakowski, Franciszek
dc.contributor.authorScholz, Markus
dc.contributor.authorSoni, Saksham
dc.contributor.authorSrivastava, Ajitesh
dc.contributor.authorGneiting, Tilmann
dc.contributor.authorSchienle, Melanie
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-20T12:54:28Z
dc.date.available2024-09-20T12:54:28Z
dc.date.issued2022-10-31none
dc.identifier.other10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8
dc.identifier.urihttp://edoc.rki.de/176904/12250
dc.description.abstractBackground During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. Methods We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. Results We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Conclusions Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.eng
dc.language.isoengnone
dc.publisherRobert Koch-Institut
dc.rights(CC BY 3.0 DE) Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschlandger
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/
dc.subject.ddc610 Medizin und Gesundheitnone
dc.titleNational and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021none
dc.typearticle
dc.identifier.urnurn:nbn:de:0257-176904/12250-6
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionnone
local.edoc.container-titlecommunications medicinenone
local.edoc.container-issn2730-664Xnone
local.edoc.pages17none
local.edoc.type-nameZeitschriftenartikel
local.edoc.container-typeperiodical
local.edoc.container-type-nameZeitschrift
local.edoc.container-urlhttps://www.nature.com/commsmednone
local.edoc.container-publisher-nameSpringer Naturenone
local.edoc.container-volume2none
local.edoc.container-reportyear2022none
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewednone

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